Phase II Deliverables

(ref: project TOR dated 9 Sept 2002)

Comments 

1. Implementation protocols for Activities 1 & 2

Also available online at: http://www.asb.cgiar.org/BNPP/phase2/bnpp_phase2_general.htm

These were updated several times in the course of the project.  Final versions reflect the state of development of the project through October 2003.

2.a. Activity 1 Technical Report

Title: Searching for Synergy in Tropical Forest Ecosystem Services: Historic and Projected Land Cover Scenarios for Exploring Biodiversity and Watershed Function Linkages (91 pages)

Main report, figures, and appendices available online at:

http://www.asb.cgiar.org/BNPP/phase2/ifpri/techreport/Act1_technical_report.pdf

2.b. Activity 2 Technical Report

Title: Landscape and (Sub)Catchment Scale Modeling of Effects of Forest Conversion on Watershed Functions and Biodiversity in Southeast Asia (253 pages)

Main report available online at:

http://www.asb.cgiar.org/BNPP/phase2/sea/techreport/FVOBAct2_all_2.pdf

Attachments to main report available online at:

3. Spatial Datasets and analyses

(a) Available online for Activity 1 at:

(b) Currently available online in Technical Report for Activity 2 at:

4.a.  At least one manuscript, corresponding to Activity 1

The manuscript is entitled: The Role of Tropical Forests in Supporting Biodiversity and Hydrological Integrity:  A Synoptic Overview

Available at:

www.asb.cgiar.org/BNPP/phase2/ifpri/manuscript/Activity1_manuscript_123003.zip

An additional policy-oriented journal article is planned to report what is learned about the scale of specific hydrological problems and methodological insights about the appropriate scale of analysis and analytical tools. Material for this article would cut across the topics of the collection of manuscripts (sections 4.a. and 4.b) and ASB Policybriefs. (sections 5.a and 5b).  This manuscript will be prepared after the various constituent elements have been reviewed.

4.b. At least one manuscript, corresponding to Activity 2

Completed

The three manuscripts are entitled:

• Far-field effects: the impact of climate variability and landcover/landuse and management change on the dynamics of surface water in the Mekong Basin

• Effects of landuse change on the hydrologic regime of the Mae Chaem River Basin, NW Thailand.  (Note that this draft is based exclusively on work by the University of Washington team, but subsequent publications will be integrated with complementary work by the ICRAF SE Asia team.)

• Spatrain: a simulator of space/time patterns in rainfall for predicting scale dependence of variability of rainfall-related processes

In addition to the ‘Spatrain’ paper above, a further six manuscripts are in preparation for submission to refereed journals in the coming year (listed in Attachment 1).

Moreover, an additional fourteen  manuscripts were either developed directly as part of this project, as part of related activities of ICRAF SE Asia , or were presented at an international symposium session on ‘Tropical land use change and impacts on watershed functions’ that was co-organized as part of this project.  These are included in the Attachments to the Technical Report for Activity 2: http://www.asb.cgiar.org/BNPP/phase2/bnpp_phase2_act2.attach_techreport.htm  

5.a. ASB Policybrief linked to Activity 1 results. 

Title: Tropical Forests and Water Supply          

Sidebar (abstract): Conventional wisdom has it that tropical forests play an indispensable role in water supply for agriculture, industry, and urban populations. But scientific evidence indicates tropical forest cover has different effects on water supply than many believe. Can policymakers relax? No, but they need to refocus on real problems.  

An additional ASB Policybrief on Deforestation and Lowland Flooding will be prepared after additional ‘far field flooding’ results from the Univ of New Hampshire ‘Water Balance Model’ and the Univ of Washington ‘Variable Infiltration Capacity Model are interpreted. 

A second additional ASB Policybrief on the nexus of tropical biodiversity, hydrological functions and human population density will be prepared after interpretation of the results for flooding and when new disaggreaged data on rural and urban population distributions are available. 

ASB BNPP Policybrief #1:TROPICAL FORESTS AND WATER SUPPLY

5.b. ASB Policybrief* linked to Activity 2 results. 

Sidebar (abstract): There is convincing evidence that deforestation and other land cover changes can have serious local consequences.  What are these local hazards? When and in what situations are the risks highest?  What can be done to reduce these hazards?

An additional ASB Policybrief  on Reforestation and water supply will be prepared.  Sidebar (abstract): Much harm has been done in the cause of watershed management aimed at ‘reforestation’. Efforts to reforest typically are neither effective nor necessary.  Much more could be accomplished – without social dislocation – through negotiation with land users and through removing disincentives to land use and landscape management practices that serve community livelihood needs and meeting the hydrological needs of local people and downstream users too.      

Moreover, another ASB Policybrief, Empowerment through Measurement, which will be the first in this ASB series on tropical forests and water , was developed as part of related activities of ASB and ICRAF SE Asia and is planned for publication in January 2004.  Sidebar (abstract):  Researchers in Southeast Asia are working together with local people to develop practical tools and methods—based on science and local knowledge—that communities can use to assess the environmental impact of their own land use practices. As a result, communities develop a stronger voice in decision making and are more able to resolve conflicts over the use of natural resources.    

ASB BNPP Policybrief #2: LOCAL HAZARDS OF TROPICAL DEFORESTATION

6.a. Policy Seminar at World Bank Headquarters, Washington, DC

Completed.  Two policy seminars and a policy workshop were conducted for Bank staff and others. 

Details of the substance of the two policy seminars and the three-hour policy workshop are included in Attachment 2. 

Policy Seminar 1. Does deforestation affect river flows across the Mekong Basin?  2 December 2003. Attended by approximately 45 Bank staff and others.

Policy Seminar 2. Tropical forests and water flows: from small watersheds to the pantropics. 3 December 2003.  Attended by approximately 35 Bank staff and others. Available at:

www.asb.cgiar.org/BNPP/phase2/sea/BBL_3Dec2003_forweb.ppt

A 3-hour policy workshop Tropical forests, biodiversity, and hydrology: what are the linkages? was conducted on 3 December immediately after the second policy seminar.  Approximately 15 Bank staff and others participated in those discussions. 

The policy seminars and the workshop produced timely and valuable feedback for finalizing project technical reports, manuscripts and (especially) refining the messages for the ASB Policybriefs.  The discussions with Bank staff also produced ideas for opportunities for additional presentations for Bank staff to further the objective of ‘mainstreaming’ results of this project. 

6.b. Policy Seminar for Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affairs (DGIS), the Hague.

Briefings were held in Nairobi instead of the Hague at the request of DGIS senior staff.  (Change in venue explained in email and written correspondence with Bank Project Manager dated 25 November 2003). 

The Activity 2 team also are developing opportunities to share results with appropriate audiences in SE Asia, which will be an essential step in influencing policy dialogues at the regional level

Note: *As stated in the Project Implementation Protocols, these ASB Policybriefs will be made public following completion of the scientific peer review of the manuscripts listed above in 4.a and 4.b, which underpin the policy recommendations.  Our current expectation is that these ASB Policybriefs would be released by 3^rd quarter 2004.

Results of this project also will contribute directly to the ASB cross-cutting assessment of ‘Forest and Agroecosystems Tradeoffs in the Tropics’ that has been selected as a sub-global component of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment.