BNPP-FVBO Activity 2

	BNPP/ASB Functional Value of Biodiversity Project – Phase II

2.3 Land use change scenarios

As part of the project, a set of 4 contrasting scenarios of socio-economic development will be produced that, in turn, frame a more detailed set of assumption about changes in land-use with an emphasis on factors likely to affect hydrology. The purpose of this exercise is to provide a logical set of scenarios through which the consequences for hydrology of alternative patterns of land-use change can be explored at several scales. The scenarios thus both help guide the generation of plausible future landscapes as well as provide a context in which to interpret the implications of modeled outcomes. The main value comes in their comparison rather than the likelihood of individual scenarios.

A set of 4 contrasting scenarios of socio-economic development will be produced that, in turn, frame a more detailed set of assumption about changes in land-use with an emphasis on factors likely to affect hydrology. Each scenario consists of:

1. Story line describing in broad terms how development proceeds at the regional scale;

2. A set of explicit rules (a qualitative model) for evolving landscapes under each of the scenarios

3. A set of land-use and land-cover scenario maps for the Ping River Basin and Mae Chaem, Mekong River Basin Region under each of these scenarios at 10 year intervals from 2000 thru to 2050. The Mekong Basin Region Scale Maps should be prepared largely under a separate sub-project grant from SEA-START RC, Chulalongkorn University as part of the AIACC project which has a focus on climate change and water-related sector changes. The funds requested here, therefore, should be used primarily for work at the other two scales.

We will also explore land use patterns derived for specific rule sets, such as forests on steepest slopes, which depends strongly on resolution of the digital elevation model.

· forests at elevations above X m.a.s.l.

· forests on riparian zone

· forests on poorest soils

· random

The scenarios will provide rule sets for:

§ Fraction forest and other land cover types.

§ Water withdrawals (for Urban + Irrigation use) to be represented as multipliers on current use.

§ Spatial organization (at least: riparian, midslope, ridges and tops).

The Scenarios report appendices will also contain a description of methods, background statistical relationships. The intention is that the report will be the basis for an individual research publication or as a part of the publication which applies the scenarios to assess hydrological consequences.

Table 4. Main steps in Preparation of the Scenarios narratives and landscape maps.

Analysis of Historical Transitions to Derive Key Relationships.

Analysis of highly aggregated trends between land-use and other development statistics for the Ping River Basin (Chiang Mai Province/Lamphun as focus).

Spatial analysis of historical transitions for much more limited set of variables – using disaggregation algorithms and multi-scale regressions (eg. As in CLUE framework);

Detailed analysis of LU changes in Mae Chaem to develop rules for different kinds of upland areas.

Preparation of set of key constraint layers (elevation, river-network, main cities, infrastructure) to use in “evolving” the landscape Scenario Set.

Liaison with users on primary axes to explore “scenario space” based on preliminary set.

Finalize the framing scenarios with storylines for land-use evolution models.

Develop conversion rules and variants for each scenario (ie. Land-use change models).

Evolve landscapes under each scenario with snapshots.

Derive various landscape metrics at different scales to describe landscape structures - revisions or variants of scenarios.

Complete project documentation

Write research paper describing scenarios and expected consequences for future land-cover.

Document datasets and models for sharing in subsequent work with hydrological models.

Figure 5. Initial thoughts on a framework for development of socio-economic and embedded landscape evolution scenarios. Inner boxes represent the landscape scenarios and outer boxes the social development contexts. These are arranged along axes of overall tree abundance and spatial distribution. “More patchy” implies that forest patches are more contiguous and distinct from other land-uses, whereas “Less patchy” implies smaller or less distinct patches with trees. A second pair of axes describing variation in social economic development can be overlaid on this framework to emphasize how the four scenarios differ with respect to social organization (Figure 6).

Figure 6. Key axes of variation in landscape and social organization in the proposed scenario set. Levels of trade and the spatial extent of institutional arrangements are examples of social connectivity.

* Short update on Scenarios Mae Chaem Work (see original email text) [L.Lebel 11/04/2003]

For several months, have been preparing, purchasing and cleaning datasets. Not totally satisfactory but went ahead with analysis and modelling with the aim of coming back with a second run when some of the key layers are useable (on demography and 'travel times').

Mon 10. Useable first draft of the simulated landscape series files under one of the scenarios.

Mon 17. First draft of the working paper, with the descriptions of the scenarios, story lines, 'soft models'.

Mid to late Jan 04. satisfactory land-use evolution model and the simulation runs under the four scenarios.

Note: USER, Chiang Mai University has not received any funds from participation in BNPP and suggest 50% payment soon.

Design and update: Sandra Velarde

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