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BNPP/ASB Functional Value of Biodiversity
Project – Phase II
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Papers (and training material for
Activity 2).
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Paper 1.
Spatrain: A Simulator of Space/Time Patterns in Rainfall for Predicting Scale Dependence of Variability of Rainfall-related Processes
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Paper 2.Spatial
variability of rainfall can replace soil-level buffering in its impact on
regularity of river flow, making watershed functions less responsive to
land use change
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Paper 3.
Buffering of riverflow in tropical
watersheds
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Paper 4.
Bridging
scales and knowledge domains of watershed functions
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Paper 5.
Plausible scenarios for changes in
forest cover and spatial distribution in northern Thailand
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Paper 6.
Dynamic landscape model for
predicting impacts of land use change on biodiversity and watershed
functions
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Paper 7.
Training material
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Paper 8. Mekong Time Series analysis
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Paper 9. Scale and location in determining near-field vs. far-field effects of landcover change in the Mekong.
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Paper 10.
Landuse change effects in the Mae Chaem
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Paper
1. Spatrain: A Simulator of Space/Time Patterns in Rainfall for Predicting Scale Dependence of Variability of Rainfall-related Processes
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Title
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Spatrain: A Simulator of Space/Time Patterns in Rainfall for Predicting Scale Dependence of Variability of Rainfall-related Processes
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Base |
The
development of a spatially explicit rainfall simulator for use with
spatially explicit huydorlogivcal models such as GenRiver |
| Authors |
Desi
Suyamto, Meine van Noordwijk, Betha Lusiana, Ai Farida and Rita Manik; World Agroforestry Centre,
ICRAF-Southeast Asia, P.O.Box 161, Bogor 16001, Indonesia |
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Target journal(s)
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Agriculture and Water Management (or similar)
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Abstract/Outline |
Abstract
Variations in riverflow tend to decrease with increasing area of
consideration, at least partly due to a decrease in temporal correlation
of rainfall events across space. Patchiness of rainfall can contribute to
an increase of yield stability over space. The SpatRain model described
here, was constructed to generate time-series of rainfall that are fully
compatible with existing station-level records of daily rainfall, but yet
can represent substantially different degrees of spatial autocorrelation.
Calculations start from the assumed spatial characteristics of a single
rainstorm pathway, with a trajectory for the core area of the highest
intensity and a decrease of rainfall intensity with increasing distance
from this core. The model can derive daily amounts of rainfall for a grid
of observation points by considering the possibility of multiple storm
events per day, but not exceeding the long-term maximum of observed
station-level rainfall. Options exist for including elevational effects on
rainfall amount. SpatRain, freely available via our website, is
implemented as an Excel workbook, with macro’s that analyze semivariance
as a function of increasing distance between observation points, as a way
to characterize the resulting rainfall patterns accumulated over specified
lengths of time (day, week, month, year).
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Paper
3. Spatial variability of rainfall can
replace soil-level buffering in its impact on regularity of river flow,
making watershed functions less responsive to land use change
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Title
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Spatial variability of
rainfall can replace soil-level buffering in its impact on regularity of
river flow, making watershed functions less responsive to land use change
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Base |
2.
test of the hypothesis that the spatial variability of rainfall can
replace physical buffering in its impact on regularity of river flow, and
thus make this aspect of watershed functions less dependent on land use
with increasing size of the area under consideration, in a predictable
way,
3. exploration of a series of virtual watersheds with the GenRiver and
SpatRain models to predict the degree to which total waterflow and
regularity of flow can be modified by land use change (historical -
present, present - plausible futures on the basis of scenarios (see
4) |
| Authors |
Meine
van Noordwijk, Farida, Desi Suyamto, Betha Lusiana |
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Target journal(s)
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technical/hydrological target?
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Abstract/Outline |
outline: explain hypothesis,
SpatRain as tool for space-time autocorrelation of rainfall, GenRiver as
tool for multiple subcatchment integration, Results for buffering as
function of spatial patterns in rainfall, Results for buffering as
function of land use change, Test of the hypothesis.
Empirical data
show an abundance of evidence for effects of land use change on streamflow
(total quantity, sediment load, amplitude of fluctuations) for spatial
scales up to 100 km2 but little hard evidence beyond that
scale. Is that simply based on lack of research, or are other factors,
such as low spatial correlation of rainfall events plus differentiation in
routing times starting to dominate beyond this scale? Are changes in local
buffering that are linked to land use change swamped by these other
effects? The GenRiver model is a distributed model based on basic water
balance at subcatchment level, linked to a rainfall generator SpatRain
that can generate a wide range of space/time patterns of rainfall. The
impacts of routing time differentiation and a simple length scale of the
rainfall pattern can now be compared to impacts of differences in
interception, infiltration capacity and storage linked to land use change.
Model parameterization for the Sumber Jaya area in Lampung (Indonesia) can
generate patterns of daily river flow that are similar to the observed
frequency distributions, if a strongly disaggregated rainfall pattern is
used for the input, and not for more homogeneous rainfall patterns.
Although a more ‘patchy’ rainfall may induce more surface quickflow at
field scale, it tends to a more regular pattern of riverflow at landscape
scale. We conclude that the factors dominating river flow patterns at
landscape scale (approximately 5th order rivers) are thus essentially
different from those dominant at field scale, and that effects of land use
change are likely to become less important with increasing scale of
consideration. Keywords: Forest conversion, GenRiver,
Hydrological impacts, Land use change, Rainfall variability, SpatRain,
Scale, WaNuLCAS, water-balance
[updated MvN
11/28/2003].
The 6-page ModSim paper
(van Noordwijk et al.) will be used as basis. Full paper will be attached
as appendix to the Phase 2 Technical Report. www.asb.cgiar.org/BNPP/phase2/sea/vannoordwijk_etal_572-577.pdf
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Paper 3.
Buffering of
riverflow in tropical watersheds
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Title
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Buffering of riverflow in
tropical watersheds
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Base |
exploration
of a series of virtual watersheds with the GenRiver and SpatRain models to
predict the degree to which total waterflow and regularity of flow can be
modified by land use change (historical - present, present - plausible
futures on the basis of scenarios. |
| Authors |
Charles
Vorosmarthy, Ellen Douglas, Meine van Noordwijk, Farida |
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Target journal(s)
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TBD
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Abstract/Outline |
Empirical
data show an abundance of evidence for effects of land use change on
streamflow (total quantity, sediment load, amplitude of fluctuations) for
spatial scales up to 100 km 2 but little hard evidence beyond that scale.
Is that simply based on lack of research, or are other factors, such as
low spatial correlation of rainfall events plus differentiation in routing
times starting to dominate beyond this scale? Are changes in local
buffering that are linked to land use change swamped by these other
effects? The GenRiver model is a distributed model based on basic water
balance at subcatchment level, linked to a rainfall generator SpatRain
that can generate a wide range of space/time patterns of rainfall. The
impacts of routing time differentiation and a simple length scale of the
rainfall pattern can now be compared to impacts of differences in
interception, infiltration capacity and storage linked to land use change.
Model parameterization for the Sumber Jaya area in Lampung (Indonesia) can
generate patterns of daily river flow that are similar to the observed
frequency distributions, if a strongly disaggregated rainfall pattern is
used for the input, and not for more homogeneous rainfall patterns.
Although a more ‘patchy’ rainfall may induce more surface quickflow at
field scale, it tends to a more regular pattern of riverflow at landscape
scale. We conclude that the factors dominating river flow patterns at
landscape scale (approximately 5th order rivers) are thus essentially
different from those dominant at field scale, and that effects of land use
change are likely to become less important with increasing scale of
consideration. Keywords: Forest
conversion, GenRiver, Hydrological impacts, Land use change, Rainfall
variability, SpatRain, Scale, WaNuLCAS, water-balance [updated MvN
11/27/2003]
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Paper
4. Bridging
scales and knowledge domains of watershed functions
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Title
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Bridging
scales and knowledge domains of watershed functions
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Base |
Base
1. analysis of the impacts of land use change on quantity and temporal
distribution of river flow for
Mae Chaem and Sumberjaya as test sites for the models |
| Authors |
Meine
van Noordwijk, Laxman Joshi, Desi Suyamto, Ai Farida and Bruno Verbist |
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Target journal(s)
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In
discussion with organizers of CPWF
Baseline Workshop Nairobi 2 – 6 November 2003
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Abstract/Outline |
Part
of the challenge in bridging between the three types of ecological
knowledge that are involved in negotiations on natural resource management
(i.e. ‘local’, ‘scientific’ and ‘public/policy’) is that each
applies to a specific frame of experience and none of them is clear on how
‘watershed functions’ change with ‘scale’. Empirical
evidence suggests that area-based scaling is not appropriate for watershed
functions other than total water yield. The research tradition in
plot-level investigations and paired catchments does not form an adequate
basis to assess water use efficiency and watershed functions in the
real-world landscape mosaics; recognizing and quantifying the lateral
flows that govern biophysical scaling rules can be an important step
forward. The presentation will discuss availability of models as synthetic
tools for scaling across space and time, bridging between parsimonious but
fully empirical and spatially distributed, process-based models that
require far more parameters than are normally available. The complexity of
biophysical scaling rules has consequences for the nesting of
institutional mechanisms and multi-stakeholder negotiations.
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Paper 5.
Plausible scenarios for changes in forest cover and spatial distribution
in northern Thailand
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Title
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Plausible scenarios for
changes in forest cover and spatial distribution in northern Thailand
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Base |
4.
(subcontracted) scenarios of plausible future land use change in greater
Mekong area, expressed as changes in total forest/tree cover, and changes
in spatial organization of the landscape given a certain forest/tree
cover) |
| Authors |
Louis
Lebel c.s., David Thomas |
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Target journal(s)
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TBD
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Abstract/Outline |
As
part of the project, a set of 4 contrasting scenarios of socio-economic
development will be produced that, in turn, frame a more detailed set of
assumption about changes in land-use with an emphasis on factors likely to
affect hydrology. The purpose of this exercise is to provide a logical set
of scenarios through which the consequences for hydrology of alternative
patterns of land-use change can be explored at several scales. The
scenarios thus both help guide the generation of plausible future
landscapes as well as provide a context in which to interpret the
implications of modeled outcomes. The main value comes in their comparison
rather than the likelihood of individual scenarios. Each scenario consists
of:
1.
Story line describing in broad terms how development proceeds at
the regional scale;
2.
A set of explicit rules (a qualitative model) for evolving
landscapes under each of the scenarios
A
set of land-use and land-cover scenario maps for the Ping River Basin and
Mae Chaem, Mekong River Basin Region under each of these scenarios at 10
year intervals from 2000 thru to 2050.
The Mekong Basin Region Scale Maps should be prepared largely under
a separate sub-project grant from SEA-START RC, Chulalongkorn University
as part of the AIACC project which has a focus on climate change and
water-related sector changes. The funds requested here, therefore, should
be used primarily for work at
the other two scales.
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Paper 6.
Dynamic
landscape model for predicting impacts of land use change on biodiversity
and watershed functions
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Title
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Dynamic landscape model for
predicting impacts of land use change on biodiversity and watershed
functions
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Base |
FALLOW
simulations for Sumberjaya and Mae Chaem.
The 6-page ModSim
paper (Suyamto et al.) will be used as basis,
and attached as an appendix to the Phase 2 Technical report. The new paper
will not be submitted before Dec 15 2003 -- work in progress.
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| Authors |
Desi
A. Suyamto, Meine van Noordwijk, Danan Prasetyo Hadi and Betha Lusiana |
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Target journal(s)
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Ecological Modelling
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Abstract/Outline |
FALLOW
is a landscape-dynamics model, which comprises the following main annual
dynamic processes: (1) plot-level soil fertility dynamics in crop and
fallow phases affecting agricultural crop production; (2) food storage,
use and sale at the village level, with options along the spectrum from
‘full dependence on local food production’ to ‘fully
market-integrated’ economy; (3) farmer decisions on increase or decrease
of the area cropped, depending on labour availability and expected
profitability of various land use
options, as they have learnt from past experiences within the simulation;
(4) spatial implementation of choices for land clearing land; and (5)
impact assessment of how the resultant mosaic of land cover will affect
watershed functions (annual water yield, base flow, net sediment loss),
biodiversity indicators and carbon stocks. Initially developed as a Stella
model, FALLOW has now been re-implemented in the spatially explicit
modeling environment of PCRaster, making it possible to apply the model to
larger landscapes with real spatial data sets. FALLOW can be used for
impact assessment and scenario studies, assisting the negotiation process
between stakeholders in a changing landscape by visualizing
possible/likely consequences of factors such as changes in prices,
population density and human migration, availability of new technology,
spatial zoning of land use, pest and disease pressure or climate. We
describe an application for the meso-scale catchment of a coffee producing
area in Sumberjaya, Lampung, Sumatra, predicting impacts on watershed
functions of 1) various ways of spatially allocating ‘forest reserves’
and 2) land use/cover changes as farmers’ response to coffee price
shocks. For a 25% forest cover, maintenance of riparian forest is
predicted to have the lowest sediment load of rivers, compared to
allocating forest to steepest slopes or ridge tops. The likely farmer
response to price shocks in coffee depends on farmer learning style and
has significant impacts on predicted net sediment loss.
Keywords:
landscape-dynamics model; annual time step; spatially explicit; PCRaster;
Sumatra.
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Paper 7.
Training
material
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Title
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Agroforestry
and watershed functions of tropical land use mosaics - Presentation
to 2nd Asia EcoHydrology Workshop/Training
Course, July 2003, Indonesia -
GenRiver and SpatRain
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Base |
BNPP
Phase I report plus ongoing work of Phase 2. |
| Authors |
Meine
van Noordwijk, Ai Farida, Bruno Verbist, Tom Tomich |
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Target journal(s)
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Proceedings of
2nd
Asia EcoHydrology Workshop/Training Course, July 2003, Indonesia. See:
http://www.asb.cgiar.org/BNPP/phase2/sea/ecohydrologytext_mvn_26jul2003.doc
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Abstract/Outline |
An
‘ecohydrology’ approach involves more than a focus on the degree of
forest cover in the upper watersheds, as the quantity, timing and quality
of water flows is determined by the land cover and land use in the whole
landscape. We discuss the different perceptions that still exist on the
special relations between ‘forest’ and ‘watershed functions’ and
consider which specific function is relevant for whom. Land use change
can modify the evapotranspiration and hence the total water yield of a
catchment, but also the pathways that water will take and hence the amount
of soil particles, nutrients, agrochemicals and (in arid regions) salt
that it will carry downstream. Evenness of river flow is influenced by
the infiltration rates in the landscape if small areas are considered.
Partial spatial independence of rainfall becomes a dominant explanation
of ‘evenness of flow’ when larger areas are considered, reducing
the relative importance of land use. Agroforestry options for the riparian
zone can have a major impact on the water quality and evenness of flow
perceived downstream, probably exceeding the importance of forest cover
in upper watersheds.
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Paper
8. Mekong Time Series analysis
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Title
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Mekong Time Series
analysis
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| Authors |
Jeffrey
Richey and others. |
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Target journal(s)
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Global Change Biology (or equivalent)
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Abstract/Outline |
The cumulative downstream impacts
("far-field effects") of even subtle variations in the flow
regime of the Mekong has important consequences for biodiversity, water
management, and flooding. This paper will evaluate the relative influence
on river flows of variability in climate, and changes in land use over the
past 20 years, together with scenarios of historical and potential future
conditions [updated Jeff Richey 11/28/2003].
In the process of defining the climatological aspects of the Mekong, we expect to be able to produce a definitive paper on consequences of climate and landuse variability on water flow. By using a “real-life” analysis, we would hope to be able to have validated results on actual near/far field effects.
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Paper
9. Scale and location in determining near-field vs far-field effects of landcover change in the Mekong.
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Title
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Scale and location in determining near-field vs far-field effects of landcover change in the Mekong.
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| Authors |
Jeffrey
Richey and others. |
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Target journal(s)
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Global Biogeochemical Cycles or a hydrology journal
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Abstract/Outline |
This paper would be the primary effort in looking at the “scenarios” linking scale and location in a drainage basin with effects.
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Paper
10. Landuse change effects in the Mae Chaem
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Title
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Landuse change effects in the Mae Chaem
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| Authors |
Jeffrey
Richey and others. |
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Target journal(s)
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TBD.
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Abstract/Outline |
Until we complete the modeling, it is not clear how robust the results will be relative to publishing in a journal. It will be very desirable to combine the work here with Meine
Noordwijk’s analyses.
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