BNPP/ASB Functional Value of Biodiversity Project – Phase II 

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Model

FALLOW: (F)orests, (A)groforests, (L)ow-value (L)andscapes (O)r (W)astelands? 
Lead Ecological Modelling & Database Unit (EMU), ICRAF-SEA, Bogor – Indonesia.
Collaborator

Contacts with PCRaster Developer – Utrecht University, the Netherlands for providing the main engine for the model implementation.

University of Washington - Jeff Richey will provide MSE Asia maps for Land Use distribution at meso-scale (8 – 50 km applicability) for 1970, 1980, 2000
Scope, dataframe, spatial resolution

(complete metadata: sources, definitions, dates, resolution, etc)

 

Study area (domain)

Landscape of rural area at forest edge that is sensitive to land-use/cover change. Applied site: Sumberjaya, Indonesia (see Suyamto, et al, 2003). Still in parameterization progress: Mae Chaem, Thailand.

Land cover (including classes distinguished) 

Settlements, agricultural lands (distinguished by crop type and land management: wetland or upland), forests (distinguished by successional stages), agroforests (distinguished by successional/ productivity stages), monoculture plantations (distinguished by productivity stages).  Resolution: 100x100 m2.  GIS products as model initialization.

DEM 

Resolution: 100x100 m2.  Generated from topographical maps.

Stream network

Resolution: 100x100 m2. Generated from topographical maps.

Soils 

Qualitative data of soil fertility and soil physical properties (mean and standard deviation) to generate spatial distribution of soil properties randomly as initialization.

Streamflow data 

GenRiver outputs: annual constant baseflow (mm) and annual baseflow fraction. Maximum groundwater storage (mm). Resolution: plot scale average (1 plot = 100x100 m2).

Dams

Not yet considered.

Climatology 

Variables 

Core modules: (1) weather variability affecting crop productivity.  Watershed function toolbox: (2) annual rainfall data: amount (mm), (3) coefficient of variance, (4) minimum daily rainfall (mm) and (5) maximum daily rainfall (mm).

Sources  (real or simulated?)  

(1) simulated (sensitivity analyses result); (2)-(5) from historical records.

Spatiotemporal resolution, original and interpolated 

Temporal scale: annual; spatial scale: plot (100x100 m2), generated from empirical statistic.

Time series

Applicable (see GenRiver climatological time series), but not yet applied.

Machinery

FALLOW is a spatially explicit model of landscape dynamics, where farmers are considered explicitly as the main human agent on land use/cover change and other agents are a priori considered.  Toolboxes to assess the impacts of land use/cover changes on food security, watershed functions, biodiversity and carbon stocks are provided.  Time scale: yearly, spatial scale: landscape with plot resolution of 100x100 m2, human dimension: dynamic single agent.  

 

Conceptualization phase: STELLA 5.1.1 – Research Edition

User interface: Microsoft Excel spreadsheet: available in http://www.worldagroforestrycentre.org/sea/Products/AFModels/FALLOW/Fallow.htm

 

Implementation phase: PCRaster

User interface:

Before August 2003: Microsoft Excel spreadsheet: available in http://www.worldagroforestrycentre.org/sea/Products/AFModels/FALLOW/Fallow.htm

From August 2003: stand-alone package developed using Microsoft Visual Basic 6.0 – Professional Edition (not yet available in the website, but can be freely ordered to d.suyamto@cgiar.org ).

Functions modeled

Core modules: (1) Plot level soil fertility and land productivity dynamics; (2) household economy through market mechanism; (3) strategic decision on land use and labor allocation through learning; (4) implementation on land use and labor allocation (incl. site selection); (5) land use/cover change through succession and growth.  

Additional modules: (6) human population dynamics; (7) market; (8) fire escape.  

Consequences toolboxes:  (9) food security; (10) watershed functions: water balance (water yield, baseflow), sediment loss, soil physical quality dynamics; (11) biodiversity: plot level; landscape level (through scaling rules); (12) carbon stocks: aboveground c-stocks and belowground c-stocks.
Land cover scenarios
preindustrial Shifting cultivation
contemporary Adoptions of monoculture plantations (coffee & clove).
loss of high biodiverse areas Shifting cultivation at overpopulated conditions.
extensification  Adoptions of coffee agroforestry.
intensification  Adoptions of monoculture plantations (coffee & clove).
Those scenarios are summarized into two main scenarios of dynamic land use/cover changes: (1) forest reserve allocation scenario; and (2) coffee price shocks scenario.
Process

(including paramaterization, validation, sensitivity tests)
parameterization for flow, infiltration, evapotranspiration, etc. Parameterization for: (1) socio-economical data – profitability assessment by Budidarsono et al. (2000); preliminary study on landscape dynamics in Sumberjaya by Leimona (2001); (2) spatial data: study by spatial data analyses unit – ICRAF SEA; (3) stream flow parameters: GenRiver outputs; (4) other hydrological parameters: literature review (e.g.  Verbist et al., 2002) and discussion with experts; (5) biodiversity parameters: discussion with experts and outputs from other projects; (6) soil fertility dynamics: literature review (Trenbath, 1989 and van Noordwijk, 2002); (7) carbon stocks parameters: literature review (e.g. van Noordwijk et al, 2002); (8) products prices are generated based on possible range of historical records; (9) any others are discussion results with experts.
validation Validation was conducted in term of range of sediment loss resulted by various land use change scenarios by literature review (i.e. Milliman, et al., 1999) – see Suyamto, et.al., 2003.
details on inputs and processing (e.g. run by bootstrapping or off real data)  All spatial data were represented as raster data (with 100x100 m2 resolution).  Non-spatial data were compiled from literature reviews/other projects’ outputs/discussion with experts/simulated data.
sensitivity analyses Sensitivity analyses were done based on two main scenarios (see above: land cover scenarios): (1) to see the effectiveness of forest reserve allocation; (2) to see farmers’ response on coffee price shocks in term of their decisions on land use that will further affect land use/cover change of the landscape, and assess the consequences on watershed functions (i.e. sediment loss).  See full results in Suyamto, et al., 2003.
Reporting and analysis of model runs

Reporting of direct hydrological flows – See Suyamto, et al., 2003.

Milestones  0, 1st, 2nd and final manuscript.
Date Expected 0 in July; 1st draft on September 2003; 2nd draft on 8 October 2003; final 1 December 2003.

Notes, 

Comments 

 NA
References

Budidarsono, S., Kuncoro, S.A., and Tomich, T.P. A Profitability Assessment of Robusta Coffee Systems in Sumberjaya Watershed, Lampung, Sumatra, Indonesia.  Southeast Asia Policy Research Working Paper, No. 16. ICRAF SEA. 2000.

Leimona, B., Modelling land use change and its driving factors: a preliminary dynamic landscape-based model of Sumberjaya Watershed, Master Thesis, Bogor Agricultural University, Bogor, 2001.

Milliman, J.D., Farnsworth, K.L., and Albertin, C.S., Flux and fate of fluvial sediments leaving large islands in the East Indies, Journal of Sea Research 41, 97–107, 1999.

Suyamto, D., van Noordwijk, M., Hadi, D.P., and Lusiana, B.  FALLOW model: assessment tool for landscape level impact of farmer land use choices. In: Post, D.A. (Ed.), Proceedings on Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand Inc.: MODSIM 2003, International Modelling of Biophysical, Social and Economic Systems for Resource Management Solutions, 14-17 July, Townsville, Australia. 2003.

Trenbath, B.R., The use of mathematical models in the development of shifting cultivation. In: Proctor, J. (Ed.), Mineral Nutrients in Tropical Forest and Savanna Ecosystems. Blackwell, Oxford, pp. 353-369, 1989.

van Noordwijk, M., Scaling trade-offs between crop productivity, carbon stocks and biodiversity in shifting cultivation landscape mosaics: the FALLOW model,  Ecological Modelling, 149, 113-126, 2002.

van Noordwijk, M., Subekti, R., Kurniatun, H., Wulan, Y.C., Farida, A. and Verbist, B., Carbon stock assessment for a forest-to-coffee conversion landscape in Sumber-Jaya (Lampung, Indonesia): from allometric equations to land use change analysis, Science in China (Series C) Vol. 45 Supp. 75-86, 2002.

Verbist, B.J.P., van Noordwijk, M., Tameling, A. C., Schmitz, K. C. L. and Ranieri, S. B.L., A negotiation support tool for assessment of land use change impacts on erosion in a previously forested watershed in Lampung, Sumatra, Indonesia, In: Rizzoli, A.E. and Jakeman, A.J., IADS, Proceeding of the 1st Biennial Meeting of IEMSS, Vol. 1, 2002.

Design and update: Sandra Velarde

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Last updated: 01 December, 2003     ©2003 ASB. All rights reserved.